Jerry Johnson prepared an update on the progress made to date.  He indicated that much of the technical pieces for Goal 9 (Economic) and Goal 10 (Housing) are complete.  The inventory mapping is still problematic.

Goal 9: Economic Opportunities Analysis

The local, state, and national trend analysis is complete along with baseline employment forecasting. 

Although not complete, the findings show that half of the buildable land within the Urban Growth Boundary and within the City of Hermiston is still undeveloped.  How much of the land is in the economic zone being discussed?  A map needs to be created to be able to specifically identify and address each land type.  A person may have an aggregate amount of land but it is deemed the wrong type of land. 

Methodology

In reviewing Hermiston’s overall share of covered employment based on unemployment insurance claims, education and health, retail trade, and transportation, warehousing, and utility employment are the strongest employment sectors.  The anticipated growth rate from the 2009 employment numbers shows a significant decline in the professional and business sector; however, the overall growth was down by less than 1%.  How was the overall 33% self-employed determined?  Would that ratio be different in other counties?  Information was obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and from Johnson/Reid.  The ratios would probably be different in each county. 

Baseline Analysis

Estimates of employment by sector at the regional level with Umatilla County being in Sector 12 create the baseline scenario.  The span is from 2008 to 2018 and shows a total growth rate of .5%.  This breaks down to roughly 200 new jobs per year across all employment sectors.  Using a 20-year baseline starting with 2010, estimates show a .8% growth rate or 100 new jobs per year across all employment sectors.

Land Need Analysis

Employment growth is translated into the related need for commercial retail land, industrial land, and office space to accommodate that growth. 

(a) Commercial Retail Land - driven by growth in households and income used as a means to forecast household spending.

(b) Industrial Land - the forecast uses a floor to area ratio, utilization rates, and space densities to estimate industrial land needs, which are around 25 new acres over 20 years.

(c) Office Space/Land – the forecast is based on applying square footage per employee as well as average space per job. A floor to area ratio of .35 is used to create new office space estimates of 123,000 square feet and around 8 acres of land over the next 20 years.

An interesting finding is that Professional & Business Services is forecasted to decline over the planning period for office space demand and office land needs.  One possibility is the closing of the Depot.  Although it is located outside of the UGB, most employees live within the UGB.

Hermiston is considered the regional retail hub for this area.  However, being close to the Tri-Cities is somewhat of a disadvantage.  Certain retail stores will locate to Pendleton, which has lower a population count than Hermiston and not suffer from competition with the Tri-Cities.  How big does Hermiston have to get to become self-sustaining?  Thresholds change by retail types and to gain a mall like the one in Tri-Cities requires large population counts.  One thing that Hermiston has over the Tri-Cities is the municipal pool. There is no pool in the Tri-Cities and during weekends, 50% of the cars are from Washington State.

Hermiston has 250 acres of vacant industrial land and 585 acres of vacant commercial land.  This would be reduced by the quality of the land and by wetlands.  The characteristics of the site are extremely important.  Retail stores want to be on Hwy 395 and large parcels of land in a desired area may not be available.

Next Steps

1) Target industries for specific employment sectors

2) Check threshold numbers for a smaller regional mall-like shopping area Hermiston’s economic development is focused on three major areas:

• Health Care
• Transportation and Warehousing
• Retail

Those are the areas aggressively pursued when perspective developers come to town.  Hermiston is adding infrastructure to support growth in the retail, transportation, and warehousing areas. Stimulus dollars where used to upgrade Feedville Road, making it easier for trucks to access Hwy 395 from the Cook property.  Health care seems to be growing on its own. 

The group discussed the vibrancy of various local industries like the hospital’s master plan for development of all 40 acres.   It was noted that the food production industry seems to have hit a wall in this area.  The wine industry should be explored as a viable industry for Hermiston.

Goal 10: Housing Analysis

Demographically driven based on the population forecasts for the next 20 years.  Housing need identified by rental/ownership, price or rent level, and unit type.  Currently, the numbers show a 10% surplus in ownership and a 1% surplus in rental units.  Interestingly, the numbers show a need for more executive housing and not affordable housing.  However, lifestyle needs must be taken into consideration before adding higher-priced homes.

Next Steps

1) Assess current buildable residential land

2) Compare projected future need to available land

3) Determine need for additional residential land, over time

Additional topics briefly discussed:

Downtown revitalization - making it attractive/marketable to the winery types Safeway plaza – getting tenants into the vacant spaces

Vision Statement: Review & Update

To become the center of commercial and industrial activity in northeast Oregon providing an attractive, livable community utilizing adaptive, modern policies to respond to changing economic development opportunities. The group suggested making the following change: To become the center of commercial and industrial activity in northeast Oregon providing an attractive, livable community utilizing adaptive, modern policies to capture economic development opportunities.

Clint Spencer pointed out changes made to Goal 1, specifically, public hearing noticing, physically posting notices on-site, and using radio broadcasts to inform the public.